Evolution of support and delivery models for podcasts is happening, but where it's going, no one knows

We are at a moment when podcasting can evolve as a medium, but that’s dependent on how listener preferences emerge.

Nicholas Quah, the author of the Hot Pod newsletter about the podcast industry, wrote last month that both terrestrial and satellite radio programming, along with subscription audio services, will merge with podcasts into a new, as yet unnamed media genre.

However, there are such big differences, particularly in business models, between podcasts and streaming subscription programming, whatever the delivery method, that this seems unlikely.

There is still a lot to sort out about delivery methods for “spoken audio entertainment.” Let’s call it that to differentiate it from the music channels on SiriusXM, Spotify and Pandora. However, it gets tricky with Spotify and Pandora, which as Quah reports, is considering offering more audio/video “shows.” Anyway, the automotive industry is said to be looking at embedding more streaming audio technology into vehicles, which could streamline the possibility that Quah envisions.

SiriusXM already has audio “show” offerings. Spotify and Pandora could also be joined by Google Play in trying to turn podcasting into a streaming medium. The other entrant into the streaming game that is actually here now is Howl, the podcast network described weeks ago in this blog. We have not yet seen what interfaces Spotify, Pandora and Google Play plan for streaming podcasts. In the case of Google Play, we don’t know what price point or price plan they would offer or what content they would include in a streaming podcast subscription service, and whether it would compare favorably with Howl’s $4.99 per month. If Google Play has far more podcast or “audio show” content to offer, at a lower price, it could undercut Howl severely, though.

The prospects of SiriusXM, Spotify and Pandora could depend more on their interfaces. Their subscription or advertising models are more established. SiriusXM has the audio show content, although accessing it on demand is more feasible on mobile devices than in vehicles. Spotify and Pandora would ostensibly just be adding audio shows as new content – but their problem might be allowing listeners to access specific episodes easily, the way one can with iTunes or an iPod.

Podcast or spoken audio entertainment listeners have a choice to make – whether the free content, advertiser-supported model will persist, or subscription models like Howl or Spotify and Pandora, if they enter this area, will win out. On either side of that choice, the delivery and interface technology can vary, including streaming in vehicles, streaming on mobile devices, on demand selections (as on SiriusXM), and on-demand as offered through iTunes or other online distribution channels.

There may end up being room for combinations and permutations of all of these put together, or there may be a dominant leader. We just haven’t seen how it may evolve yet.